Brahm

51 Comments

    • ON: Wed Oct 8th 10:04 AM
      Commented on:
      India Battered by Global Storm
      This analysis is incisive! It implicitly focuses the reader on the essentials in the differences between the economies (and problems) of that of India with those of an emerging China. Or shall we say developed China!

      The Indian (and also Brazil, perhaps) industrial growth story is still preserved though at a slower pace while that of China faces a significant slowdown or marginal decline. China's economy is much more meshed in with the larger global economy due to heavy export dependency, while India's is less so. The effect of commodities is larger on the Indian economy since it weighs in at heavier relative level in its consumption and much of it based on imports. Thus the effects of commoditities recently on Indian inflation based on this dependency has been much larger. Perhaps, with the fall in commodity prices globally there soon woul be significant relief from inflation for the Indian economy.

      India is also likely to see significant pick-up in investments after the elections expected soon in development of its infrastructure which has been subpar in recent years. The authror's suggestion of the likelihood of the preservatgion of India's growth story is plausible. I would bet that it is highly likely. The one area of concern is in India's poor track record for development and growth of its farm sector and agri-industry.

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    • ON: Sat Oct 4th 16:46 PM
      Commented on:
      Citi Examines Its Carrots and Sticks
      The question one needs to browse upon is whether the FDIC has the authority to force a shot-gun marriage with a specific suitor, if the shareholders feel they have gotten a raw deal. Especially if no Federal or FDIC money or gurantees are going to be involved in the deal for the alternative option, ands there arte no limitations with regard to capitalization or anti-trust. I would be surprised if the FDIC (or Sheila Bear) sustains the Citi take over as the only option there is.
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    • ON: Wed Oct 1st 12:35 PM
      Commented on:
      What's Brewing Between China, Vale, and the Baltic Dry Index
      Long term the Vale gambit may have some strong currency behind it. However near or intermediate term as the global slowdown unrolls, Vale may have its swagger somewhat crimped. Don't forget there are about half a dozen global suppliers still around who may just step in to provide some of the slack stemming from Vale's hardball negotiating tactics. Excess capacity may just be there to checkmate Vale's ploys as auto sales cool and infrastructure needs are moderated due to strains on national budgets or kittys.Note that companies such as Mittal are also busy acquiring ore capacity and developing new production to reduce ore purchases from outside suppliers.
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    • ON: Wed Oct 1st 10:09 AM
      Commented on:
      Why Have Things Gone So Wrong?
      Transparency is a very relevant issue. However, after saying that our difficulties begin mounting like a tsunami landing on the coast. What do we mean by transparency? It is difficult to answer that in a coherent, relevant and encompassing manner.

      To many laymen one of the greatest failures with regard to transparency in the last several years has been the way in which disclosures were made before the floating of these toxic securities which have been at the root of our problems now. There is the story how Paulson's former firm (Goldman) packaged some of the most toxic securities. The disclosure document was about 400 pages long. It disclosed everything about the packaged securities (SIV), including the toxicity of some of the parts of the package. However, someone had to have a PhD in finance and several other disciplines to understand the full possible impact, and more imprortant, weeks of time to find out what is wrong or horriblle about the package.

      Whose fault was this that something like this can happen or be allowed?

      Of course, Goldman first, perhaps. Why? They weren't thinking about anyone else., except themselves! Legally? Certainly, thye were not at fault at all. Those who helped peddle these to their ignorant and unsuspecting clients are seriously at fault. No doubt of it. Here the failure had been telling and outrageous.

      How about the SEC, or the monitoring and permitting agency which should either require better concise disclosure or not allowed these securities to be floated since some of them were worthless or highly risky. Some were also unrelated to the more acceptable securities in the packaged SIV. Certaiinly, this or other Fed agencies connnected with the permitting of these securities were derelict. Here definitely was a problem, and from the layman's point of view, a serious on e. Agencies which were asleep or forgot their responsibilities in regard to transparency and, perhaps, even also on appropriateness. It will require a lot of legal, ethical, moral, as well as regulatory experience to browse on these failures to serve as leeson for the future. However, will we see this reviewed in a meaningful way. It is doubtful!

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    • ON: Wed Oct 1st 08:49 AM
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, More
      David Fry presents excellent analysis as usual. However, dumping on the speaker ain't cute at all. Perhaps, dumping on the scrumptious crowd that implicitly said "She hurt our feelings and exposed our hypocrisy of the last 25 years of pinhead economics" is probably more to the point.
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    • ON: Sun Sep 21st 16:41 PM
      Commented on:
      Read It and Weep for the USA
      I can only add that the sum total of this authority being vested in the Secretary of the Treasury is so vast, without limit within the $700 billion authorised and unlimited in potential derelictions and conflict, that it is frightening. We can only pray that the Secretary will have enough integrity and the Grace of God on himself so that we will be protected from the follies of Government and many of its officials in the Secretary's circle. .It is a sad day in the history of the United States that we have fallen so low into a morass where we have no checks and balances for our protection on this critical piece of authority.
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    • ON: Fri Sep 19th 09:44 AM
      Commented on:
      Hedge Funds May Have Gone Too Far
      Well, yes, it is unfair that the big boys at GS, MS andat many other enteprises have the clout to get protection for themselves, while they have been guilty of practises of the same kind in behalf of their clients and their own accounts in the past. But this is not a fair world, and was probably never meant to be. However, nore important, somebody should have had the gumption to call for the firing of Christopher Cox a long time ago. McCaine has finally done it yesterday -- too late and perhaps only because he is running for election and Cox has been one of the sore points in this election. In my view, it is a fault to appoint anyone who has served in Congress or the Senate to a post in a business related field, such as as the SEC or the Board of a financial public enterprise. Political sense is simply in conflict with dollar and cent propriety too often and in strange ways.
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    • ON: Mon Sep 15th 16:54 PM
      Commented on:
      Canadian Natural Resources: Horizon Slippage
      CNQ is a company to watch. for its future. It may be a " timelier" at this point. However, is it timely now to put more investment in it? Oil is just below $100. Where is the floor? That is the point when CNQ's timeliness may be assured.
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    • ON: Wed Sep 10th 10:49 AM
      Commented on:
      Dow Chemical's Next Move
      It is a good time to begin moving actively on production and facilities in India. However, even with deliberate speed in mind, India is a tough place for setting up a manufacturing facility. At least five years away, and perhaps more, for chemicals production to begin if today is the start day for initiating land acquisition, plant plannning and construction. We should not underestimate the hurdles and foibles of the whole enterprise set-up process.
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    • ON: Wed Sep 10th 10:27 AM
      Commented on:
      Oil Spreads Widen - and Narrow
      On a theoretical basis, there is something to the Picken plan. Sustituting gas to become one of the options for gasoline may have the effect of moderating oil prices and providing relief to the US economy in a few ways in the intermediate term -- import and trade balance relief, $ strength and soundness, reducing OPEC's and Russian/Iranian/Venezu... potential for blackmail, and price volatility on energy supplies.

      However, gas supply infrastructure development may prove to be costly unless the Government formulates a policy to "bless" gas engines in vehicles on a long term basis as one of the vehicle options. Otherwise, there will be very little enthusiasm for deploying capital for infrastructure development and investment.
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    • ON: Tue Sep 9th 13:15 PM
      Commented on:
      Fannie/Freddie Bailout 'Disastrous Fiasco'
      Agree with the story-line that this is bailout of a bunch of **** ( I can't write or outright say it in open public forum, even though Jim can!) and incompetents, some of whom should have either been in jail a long time ago or cast-out from financial markets (as "unreformable&quo... However, sadly these are the privileged and entitled froth we should never have the fortune to have had.

      It is not the bailout per se that is bad, but, as Cheng said, it is the manner it has been formulated and then executed. Unfortunately, no one has gone to jail yet for all this mess. Perhaps, no one will have to, save some lowly broker or mortgage banker in the distant future.
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    • ON: Sat Sep 6th 17:33 PM
      Commented on:
      Tata Motors Makes Its Move Out of Singur
      Congratulations, Grimmette! You got a significant chunk of the mediveal Indian scene right. Even with its eternal soap opera, thuggish characters, grand-standing corrupt politicians, and not least, but including, its big opportunistic big business..

      This is a major accomplishment on your part worth a proclamation ackowledging you as one of the few persons deserving the genuine appelation of being an India expert. However, you only got about 80% of the facts straightened out or listed. It is no mean accomplishment though. Hope you did not have someone fill in the blanks too much for yourself on this. Even then it serves the purpose.

      Now you know why many of us highbrows and not so highbrows upward aspiring"Indians&... have been over here as your hiumble guests or second class citizens/residents. The place back "home" is impossible to navigate for the most of us (who still call themselves NRIs, or non-resident Indians). Even with our US earned PhDs or business school credentials from the ivy leagues and other prestigious schools, we would just be babes in the woods in the urban jungles of India.
      The real present India is frightening to many of us. This India which has been fashioned by the Nehru and his decendants (the Gandhis including the the Italian import} will perhaps always be an elusive dream --at least for our life-times. India needs a lot of "change" before the corrupt establisments spawning over its land, especially of the Left variety and that present in its GOP, are permanently dethroned and uprooted. But when will that day dawn when the huddeld masses of India get their freedom from the parasitic establishments?

      Somehow the foreign markets have more faith in India's future than many of us descendants from the land of the Buddha, Rama and Gandhi. Hope the market is right, and we are wrong!

      Tatas, the local Government, Mamamta and the Central Government are all grand-standing. Time and suffering are cheap commodities in India. The land problem may be solved this weekend or any day soon. At the end of the day most of the parties to the dispute, thriving under Big Brother's control of the Indian scene, do not want the car project to leave Bengal. Even so, I would still not buy TTM at this price level yet!
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    • ON: Sat Sep 6th 15:57 PM
      Commented on:
      Rescuing Frannie
      Yes, the self-serving upper management should go. There is also practically little left to justify shareholder control or influence for these entities. I hope the Government would appoint auditors to assess what is left that is due shareholders. My guess is "Nothing." As regards, the preferred shares, the holders should also bear some responsibility and take a haircut to teach them a lesson on responsibility. They have been enjoying the good income (and good times) for years without using significant brainpower in doing so.
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    • ON: Sat Sep 6th 15:30 PM
      Commented on:
      Time To Consider Oil's Homely Cousin, Natural Gas
      I say six months to a year. The price of NG will begin rising again to gradually approach former levels. Even at those former levels, NG would be cheaper than oil, no matter where oil's price ends up again. Shale exploitation is price dependent, and at $7 it is not attractive to invest in shale based gas production.
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    • ON: Sat Sep 6th 15:04 PM
      Commented on:
      Bill Gross' Bailout Call: Wise Man or Fool?
      When the winds are favourable, the Bill Grosses of this world know no humility to crow over others and offer gratutious comments. When the sailing gets dangerous for their little boats, these guys send the SOS out for bail-out nobody is entitled. Even bailout at the cost of everyone else. Must take a certain mindset to have such level of arrogance to be able to think that they are entitled.
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