12 Comments

    • ON: Mon Sep 1st 03:44 AM
      Commented on:
      Thursday's Stock Rally Means Little to Trends
      Fantastic work!!!
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    • ON: Tue Jul 15th 12:08 PM
      Commented on:
      GSEs: Raw Deal for Taxpayers and Investors
      Absolutely, in fact I covered this side of the table, on Sunday itself @ jumpup.wordpress.com/2.../

      In fact, with an additional 5trillion dollar debt on public ledgers, the entire thing looks pretty grim to me. Another additional thing which will affect the situation is, with dollars falling, yen is going to be stronger, which in turn is going to affect job creation opportunities as well.
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    • ON: Wed Jun 11th 13:21 PM
      Commented on:
      India Investors Best Off Sitting on the Sidelines for Now
      Haha...

      @hownow... of course I am not changing my tunes now... I am still long on Indian economy and bullish on it... but this report is just a short term report... wait till August [preferably, citation needed] to see some movement...

      And the April one was a socio economic take... mentioned in comments as well, which forecasts long term prospects, not the short term investing scenes.. which matches with my present take as well [both long]... [ :) Faulty data, tell me about it ;) ]

      Cant you see, all the previous three articles deal with LONG investments?


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    • ON: Fri Jun 6th 20:11 PM
      Commented on:
      Infosys, Innovation and the Changing Face of IT
      Hi All,
      Nice to have you all here..

      @Thomas, I don't know if you gave the links a read, but on Jump Up! [the blog to which I have linked] in fact at the end signs off with this thought that, there is a huge cusp between getting patents granted and implementing them in a business, especially one like this. So the point was always acknowledged. Yet the takeaway essentially is, Infy at the end of the day is showing some real initiatives to stay at the top of the next wave of outsourcing.

      And what remains,yes, Finacle is indeed a milestone in their business and received a lot of rave reviews from Gartner as well.And I do see, Finacle being a clincher, but unfortunately it is just one single product in its line.
      But understand this, that in the coming years, Infosys will really not be earning its bread and butter from maintaining and developing databases and servers. It will be moving in areas and domains which is not even its core strength, thus perhaps even changing its entire core competency in the process, moving higher up in the chain. And as again said, Infosys is just now happy with maintaining world's servers, it wants to actively develop and have stake in them, which again is a good news.

      @Quixote, Most of the points I have covered with a reply to Thomas. Yet, some more clarification is needed. Some of the areas are indeed outside Infosys' tradional business domain, like grid computing, pervasive computing etc. But in the coming years [read half a decade or so], the way the world carries out its projects will change too. So in effect, what is a weak point today can be made a strong point tomorrow by investment and focus, which Infy seems to be doing fine. And secondly Infy has to move up the value chain before the third wave comes in, so its imperative to explore newer areas rather than beat around the same old bush.
      Incidentally Infy's research initiative reminds me of GE and Honda in its own humble ways. [I know I know,presumptuous to even compare them]. But think of it, Honda's robots and cars have very less to do with each other, yet Honda is pursuing those frontiers aggressively.
      GE is not exactly known as a semi research company, but in Niskayuna it has a dedicated site to research and develop cutting edge solid state devices.
      Hope you get the point.
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    • ON: Mon Apr 21st 14:17 PM
      Commented on:
      Gyrating Salsa: Brazilian Economy Dancing with Joy
      Excellent strategy global... I always believe if one sells when everybody is selling then who is there to buy?

      Volatility keeps weaklings out of the equation... if you feel bullish its best not to have weak hands in the deal :)
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    • ON: Mon Apr 21st 10:18 AM
      Commented on:
      Gyrating Salsa: Brazilian Economy Dancing with Joy
      GlobalMacro,

      I am a technical analyst, and I am not following FMCG much, but yet this is my two pence:

      Depending on the entry point and investment horizon which you take, my opinion will vary slightly.

      If you invested in SDA anywhere between 2005-2006, then 2007 was the apt time to exit as Brazil was reeling under inflation and FMCG stocks are observed to do good at those times. In fact anytime in 2007 was a good time to exit. Now going forward, it is a strong HOLD signal from my side. You may be able to book some profits in around 12months.

      And if you have planned to enter now... it is a strong BUY signal from my side. The business looks pretty good to me.

      I guess if you follow granger's investment philosophy of buy and forget then this 'should' be returning quite a hefty profit.

      Sadia is expected to do good in around OCT-NOV-DEC and regional wise in UK and Russia.


      [Disclaimer: I do not hold SADIA SA at the time of writing and the views above should not be construed as investment advise. Please do your own deductions and refer a qualified stock broker before making any investment decisions]
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    • ON: Sun Apr 20th 14:51 PM
      Commented on:
      Gyrating Salsa: Brazilian Economy Dancing with Joy
      Hi Cachaca...

      Expecting that "couple of years ago" roughly goes four years back i.e 2004, here are some of my reasons to believe things written above.
      Quoting from International Energy Outlook 2007,

      "Throughout Central and South America, significant shares of national electric power supplies are derived from renewable energy sources—primarily, hydropower. In times of drought, such heavy reliance on hydroelectricity has been problematic, resulting in widespread power shortages. Hydroelectric generation accounted for 83 percent of Brazil’s total electricity supply in 2004, and despite ongoing efforts to diversify the fuel mix for the country’s electricity generation, hydropower is projected to remain Brazil’s predominant source of electricity through 2030... "

      In Central America it is expected to generate more than 54% of the total energy demand.

      Yes, Brazil does have a problem there, but is it any worse than India's problem where it is relying on majority [circa 80%, data not checked] on the oil and natural gas imports from OPEC countries? In my opinion no! With the present oil prices spiraling, Brazil is partly insulated from this problem and thus safeguarding the national coffers.

      When, a booming economy is dependent on a rising potential [renewables] rather than a falling one [read: oil] I see a chance over there for new companies to fill in this void of assuring a continuous supply. And we must not forget, Brazil is one of the most underrated economies, with an amount of emphasis given on R&D.
      I see it as bricks and mortars for building a sustainable 'winning' trade.
      You may very well note that, I have quoted forward data till 2030. I have a reason there.
      Thats for the long term perspective. Real long! :)
      Hope it clears your doubts.
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    • ON: Sat Apr 19th 01:00 AM
      Commented on:
      The Dance of the Elephant: India in Action
      Ivan,
      Your takes are interesting, but my line of reasoning is not in the same line.

      I am arguing more from the socio-economic point of view. In fact the article could have been better named had there been a byline for the article, socio-economic analysis of India.

      I do agree inflation is burning a deep hole, I do agree that elections are going to happen and populist measures are taken by the establishment, but my analysis focuses on 'extra' long term something to the effect of 4-5 years of horizon. And this was justified via the socio-economic mood study, as done by Robert Prechter in his first seminal study in 1985.

      As for the bullishness of the economy in the long run, I think we both agree here. Socio-economic moods can very actually predict the long term trends of a nation.
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    • ON: Fri Apr 18th 18:12 PM
      Commented on:
      The Dance of the Elephant: India in Action
      Nielsen India has released some new findings about the Indian consumer being the third most brand conscious in the world, as late as last month.

      So I really don't believe that the consumer confidence is tanking... but yes any data to shed light on it can give us some perspective

      [Normally Nielsen releases at the end of the year, so I don't think the latest ones are out yet]
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    • ON: Fri Apr 18th 09:28 AM
      Commented on:
      The Dance of the Elephant: India in Action
      @nick

      Thanks.
      And yeah definitely the private barometers are less likely to be skewed than the governmental. Nielsen India often comes up with Indian business news. But for papers you have to shell out some dough.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Apr 18th 09:26 AM
      Commented on:
      The Dance of the Elephant: India in Action
      @bonchi
      True... but I think investors need to look beyond the projections and stories of media, to appreciate all the facets of an investment
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    • ON: Fri Apr 18th 09:25 AM
      Commented on:
      The Dance of the Elephant: India in Action
      @hownow

      The data shown over here from MasterIndex is six months forward projecting. So Dec 2007 consumer confidence index shows the consumer confidence for the next half yearly period of 2008.
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