Muddling Investor

http://muddlinginvestor.blogspot.com/

221 Comments

    • ON: Thu Oct 2nd 18:10 PM
      Commented on:
      Think of These as Short-Term Troubles
      Long term? If you need that money in 20 years, you are right. Otherwise, it's the worst investing environment since 1929.
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    • ON: Thu Oct 2nd 14:43 PM
      Commented on:
      Why the Bailout Bill Alone Won't Solve the Credit Crisis
      Great Depression II, which I was afraid of in December (muddlinginvestor.blogs...), is coming. Rescue package will decide how bad is it gonna be. We can't avoid it now, we can only make it better or worse, shorter or longer. Remember, nobody makes money in deflation, with rare exceptions. Bulls, bears, all lose.
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    • ON: Wed Oct 1st 14:54 PM
      Commented on:
      The Market Cannot Fix the Financial Crisis By Itself
      Bravo! You just forgot to add that, like in Great Depression, prices for everything, not houses only, would go down, kicking off deflationary spiral. Welcome to Great Depression II!
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Oct 1st 14:50 PM
      Commented on:
      Four Myths About the Free Market and Its 'Demise'
      What are we arguing about? Great Depression II is coming and there is nothing which can stop it now. Bank rescue package (I don't know what idiot called it Wall Street rescue, Wall Street is done already, there are no investment banks around anymore) could save us from GD II two weeks ago. Now it's too late. Buy the mattress, turn everything into cash. Keep cash, in deflation (unknown for the most concept) money go up in price. Forget about commodities. Forget about any investments, except into high dividend vice companies: tobacco, spirits, maybe some casinos.
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    • ON: Tue Sep 30th 13:08 PM
      Commented on:
      Is the Dollar Becoming Less Global?
      Sorry, misprint. Russian companies owe more than $500 billion.
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    • ON: Tue Sep 30th 13:07 PM
      Commented on:
      Is the Dollar Becoming Less Global?
      Year, right. For naive people out there, ruble fell against dollar more than 10% in the last couple of months. Who cares if ruble is valued in dollars, gold or mud pies? Russian economy is less than 10% of American and that number is hugely inflated by price of oil. Russian companies, mainly government ones, owe Western banks more than $500 million, they ran dollar carry trade and got caught with their pants down when ruble fell. Now government is going to bail them out, but government doesn't have that kind of money.
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    • ON: Tue Sep 30th 13:02 PM
      Commented on:
      Food, Fuel Prices Likely to Remain High
      'unless there is a sharp economic downturn': I just like this caveat. What do you think happens to economy when credit markets are frozen? Boom?

      We are in deflation. It's here and now, and spreading to all goods, food and fuel are not exceptions.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Sep 30th 12:58 PM
      Commented on:
      Dollar Goes Down Along with Bailout Plan
      Last time we had Great Depression, we had deflation. Why would we have inflation now? Credit is frozen, how do you get money to inflate? It's ridiculous. Just look at the dollar strength against all currencies yesterday and today.

      Disclosure: long UUP.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Sep 30th 12:55 PM
      Commented on:
      Hurricane Damage Impacts Oil Price
      Oil is going down from here. Yesterday was a good illustration, because traders got a feel of Great Depression II. No commodity goes up in worldwide depression, ever. Oil is not an exception.
      The fact that Ike affected production, that it put offline more than 20 platforms in the Gulf, was reported, but wasn't widely commented. I don't understand why.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Sep 29th 18:11 PM
      Commented on:
      Financial Markets Circle the Drain: Where Does That Leave Clean Energy?
      Only 2 thoughts (2 cents worth each):

      1. Alternative energy will get what it deserves: alternative money (or alternative to money).
      2. Every House member voting against bank rescue plan deserves Hoover Prize. I propose miniature apple cart, but other ideas are welcome.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Sep 26th 15:10 PM
      Commented on:
      The Calm Before the Storm?
      Well, there is a third way: Japan. Banks pretend they are OK, government pretends banks are right, 18+ years of depression.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Sep 25th 18:04 PM
      Commented on:
      U.S. Offshore Oil Ban to Expire
      Sometimes (I think most times, but I might be wrong) do nothing is the best policy!
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    • ON: Thu Sep 25th 17:24 PM
      Commented on:
      What a Surprise: Credit Rating Agencies Hurt America
      Rating agencies earn money by charging debt issuers for the work of debt rating. I just wonder why we don't hire wolves to herd sheep...
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Sep 25th 17:20 PM
      Commented on:
      Rally Now, Wheels Come Off Later - Faber
      Well, this is a 'sell on strength' market...
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Sep 25th 10:50 AM
      Commented on:
      U.S. Offshore Oil Ban to Expire
      At last! There is some common sense in Congress, even though not enough.
      View article »
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