ACEMAN

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    • What Happened to the Oil Markets on Monday? [view article]
      The short-squeeze was definitely the case as a result but not the cause in the spike up in futures pricing. In Europe it became clear that the delivery status of actual oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia, West Africa et al were slowed by primarily shippers and intermediaries who demand greater premium for actual delivery. This is not a new phenomenon, but with Europe without natural resources and dependent on imported oil, the short-squeez played right into the hands of those who hold contracts for delivery, especially those whose firms are headquarted in Switzerland. Sep 24 11:25 AM
    • The Artificial Inflation of Stock Prices, Due to the Short Selling Ban [view article]
      Y'all are jealous 'cause you can't make any money on naked or even covered shorts! Y'all are always on the wrong side of the trade because y'all stuff you heads with irrelevant material and thus continue to miss the prize and that is makin' money. The boys that be cut out naked short sells because if you knew what you were doing then there would be fluid markets. But no, y'all are always late to the game and expose incompetent trading practices. By cutting out naked shorts, y'all are not goin' to lose your mortage money or the grocery money. Sep 23 09:41 PM
    • After a Down Month, Wait a Month to Buy an Asset Class [view article]
      Y'all have to understand that "mean reversion" is a probability construct and Gaussian applications are not. But the real issue to which DLaw is on the trail of is this: "median" and "average" could be pure noise or just bad numbers that look good for analysis sake. The fact is the mean reversion construct merely approaches or in truth approximates a mean, it can 't really get there, i.e., to any real mean, and that was proven by Goedel's hypothesis. So what y'all have is something that approaches your "mean" but never really gets there. Moreover, a mean reversion cannot, because it is impossible, provide all the data that is necessary to carry out a quantum analysis. So to make this applicable to trading, y'all need to forget about mean reversion because y'all can't trade on it as it is not predictive in any way, shape or form. In fact, it probably gets in the way of trading intuitions and complex individual understanding. Reversion to the mean is a fiction and cannot be proven to be effective in making you a better and more successful trader. Probability theory should not be used as a predictive tool, cause it ain't! Sep 14 12:05 AM
    • Trichet Warns of Further EU Inflation Risks [view article]
      Y'all are close to the "essence" of M. Tritchet's read speech to the EU parliament yesterday--you could have seen the whole thing on various French TV cable stations piped to the US--was noteworthy for its insistence that inflation worldwide will grow sufficiently in the next ten to eighteen months as to wipe out most of the gains made in the "emerging" world as well as those in the EU and their junior partners in Eastern Europe and former Soviet states. He also acknowledged that the recession in the US, and he was not shy to mention the "R" word not only affects both sides of the Atlantic, his phrase, but also all the recent gains in Africa. He also referred to the fact that if the EU and the US cannot re-start their economies, then China, especially, will be hard hit by inflation greater than it's experiencing today and could lead to unrest. He mentioned that the latest measure in the US to "nationalize"... the mortgae debt of the US was an enormous sufficient step to stave off wholesale panic but not neccesarily a step to deal with the root cause of debt obligations nearly worldwide. Perhaps hammering Hank and petulant Ben could take a look at J_C Trichet's speech--given in perfect English, and learn a thing or two about being honest, forthright and straight talkin'. Obviously, M. Trichet is the product of a classical education! Sep 10 03:09 PM
    • Forex Wrapup: Dollar Benefits As Traders Focus on Weak Economies Elsewhere [view article]
      Y'all better keep your eyes on Grace and the Euro/USD. She almost makes it look too easy. USD against the Euro at 1.28 by the end of the year especially if J. Trichet gets his way and increases interest rates which in and of itself boost the USD. The ECU needs a strong dollar especially in light of falling commodities and oil prices. Both sides of the Atlantic will benefit from a rising USD. And don't forget, as China's inflation woes spiral upwards the USD and the Euro find a better balance. Aug 11 01:45 PM
    • Merrill CDO Deal: How Can It Book a 'Sale'? [view article]
      Y'all are talkin' around one of the oldest tricks in accounting, namely: "suppressed profits." Which means by valuing the CDO's at the sale price, which obviously will be greater than the total loss price, allows MER to record this sale as a "gain" by releasing the suppressed profits. CDO's and all other sliced and diced pooled assets are treated the same way upon sale. So MER's loss actually becomes a gain on the balance sheet which placates its shareholders and the SEC. All in all, it's an accounting trick! But allowable. Look closely at annual reports and y'all will see it being done all the time. Ya gotta look to find it. Jul 30 01:43 PM
    • ConocoPhillips: Why the Sell-off? [view article]
      Y'all don't like to sell and make some good ole' American profit? COP was a prime suspect to sell and take y'alls profits and buy somethin' cheap and valuable. The nature of the game is makin' money my daddy taught me. Don't be the patsy and if y'all can't figure it out, then the patsy is you. Jul 20 11:10 PM
    • Did Fannie and Freddie Cause the Mortgage Crisis? [view article]
      Y'all got the right ideas Unclelonghai and the good professor, but y'all are making this into a metaphysical issue. So let's look at it from the bank examiner's or regulator's point of view ( I ain't one but I know how they work). The bank examiner looks at the books and says to the president of the bank that there don't seem to be any valuations attached to these CDO's sitting right there on the balance sheet. The bank president says somethin' like it don't really matter cause it is guaranteed by the full faith and credited of these United States (that means you and me brother). The bank examiner goes back to his office, writes up his report and shuffles a few papers and pushes that paper up the line. This goes on up the line but nobody reads or cares what the implication just might be. And finally when everything hits the fan, Congress starts waving the flag and says' y'all better give us an answer you folks at the Fed. Had anyone read the initial bank examiners report and looked at the REO department of said bank and added up the numbers, they would have seen this Tsunammi coming a mile away. Or better yet, we even had the President of these United States looking at his TV and expressing his disbelief over that little storm called Katrina. So the data was there, the reports are all there and the warnings were all there about the sub-prime business, but no one wanted to spoil the party. Now as taxpayers we gonna pay for the party! Jul 17 05:28 PM
    • Cross-Talk: The Role of Emotion in Trading [view article]
      Y'all don't define what "emotion" is but merely talk about it as if there were one thing called emotion and that that thing was definable. The major flaw of most who are, say, "emotional" and trade is that the believe that their trades will be saved by someone or something. In effect, they have of "delusion of reprieve". And, since these "traders" do not spend the time to establish the value of a company and the price relative to basic valuations, they do not have the education. Good traders are not delusional and know how to pencil out valuations. They trade on confidence that they have understood the company's balance sheet and that it is significantly a cheap stock relative to the markets and its peers. And finally, ignorant traders believe, it appears, that linearity is real and hence seem to devine the future price based on the past which only confirms the belief that they wish understand a stock backwards but live it forwards! For above references see Victor Frankl and S. Kierkegard. Jul 05 04:04 PM
    • GFD Guide to Total Returns: Market History - and Future? [view article]
      What Y'all missed here is an opportunity to review how gold has been understood or better mis-understood in economic and personal terms. Moreover the very conundrum of gold's relationship to interest rates in the US from the early 19th century to the present even confounded the great economist JM Keynes. Gold's relationship to interest rates and gold's counter intuitive economic rise and fall and rise again in the early 21st century can be best understood by reading a paper by Larry Summers of Harvard in 1968. Y'all can learn something from this. Jul 04 12:08 PM
    • MBIA's GIC Exposure Could Trigger a Liquidity Crisis [view article]
      Y'all got that right, i.e., the "spiraling down" part as discussed by Barclays UK. However, it is not only MBIA that as guarantor will have to scramble to meet its obligations, it is the very large insurance companies that not only provide GICs but also the reinsurance to cover most life and annuity contracts. The fact is that there are credit derivatives and CDR markets that allows us to see immediately the impact of a change in ratings and the need to cover the premium increase needed to cover the real static liabilities. Just think of what might happen in the annuity and life insurance markets when policy owners get a wiff of GIC and credit derivative losses and increased premium. Barring full surender of policies, the insurance companies will need to extend contracts and reduce the pay-out to individual policy holders. This could be huge---and it did happen before during the Depression. In effect, it defines the question of risk. Jun 29 01:52 PM
    • Performance of Commodities in Inflation [view article]
      Y'all are closing in on the correlation but not the causes which drives inflation. Given the very same time frames, inflation in the US is directly related to the post Vietnam period. Often it is the sixth year after entering a war that inflation truly heats up for obvious reason and that can be tracked in the US right back to the Revolutionary war.Regarding Foreign Stocks and inflation, except for 2001 to the present, inflation in Europe for the same dates above was based on currency instability throughout Western Europe something that is not the case today. Also, if we look closely at the YEN during the time frames above against the dollar we have the USD devaluing against the YEN due to one-sided trade imbalances which was a precursor to the sinking USD against China and East Asian exports. Thus WAR and TRADE IMBALANCE (and its corellary--borrowing) are among the chief causes of inflation. Numbers don't mean a thing unless that got their proof. Jun 27 03:16 PM
    • Do New Commodity ETFs Signal a Top? [view article]
      Y'all got it right my man Mebane because the worm has turned after the last six months of powering down of Asian markets and significant powering up of inflation. All commodities will take a tumble in Asia and East Asia and India due to falling state mandated subsidies in oil and food. It will be a relatively short cycle but an inflationary cycle nonetheless and should give pause to the blinded Guru's of emerging markets who are invested in emerging markets at any cost. To make money, however, look at the strongest banks who are placing there bets in SWFs directed at the UK and Western Europe. When in doubt they always go back to momma. Jun 26 09:49 AM
    • These Three Deep Sea Drillers Look Like a Bargain [view article]
      Y'all need to consider the best of the lot and that is PDE based on intrinsic value, low debt, low P/E, low PEG and not burdened by old rigs. This is the comer for the next curve up in platform and deepwater drilling. Jun 20 01:28 AM
    • Will the Dollar Recovery Launch a Bank Rally? [view article]
      RBS is an interesting bank, indeed. But why no discussion on its rights offering, the acquisition and integration of ABN AMRO, and its writedowns due to CDOs and related mortgage problems affecting the balance sheet. However, it could be a sleeper. What is your price target 12 months out? Jun 17 04:23 PM
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