Matt Blackman

http://TradeSystemGuru.com
Total Rating:
+2 / 0

172 Comments

    • Wed Oct 8th 16:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Inflation Could Cure Our Economic Ills
      What do you think "Helicopter Ben" and his Fed minions have been trying to do? By all means, let's do more of what got us into this mess in the first place...not!
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 8th 12:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Canadian Oil Sands Looks Attractive Despite Near Term Risk
      Kurt;
      Do you have any information on the price threshold at which oil sands projects become non-profitable? I heard one analyst say that threshold is around $70/bbl on average...
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 8th 12:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Transportation Sector May Be Overly 'Clobbered'
      See my article Is there a Dow Transport disconnect?
      seekingalpha.com/artic...?
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 6th 13:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      For the Global Credit Boom, the End Is Near
      Just to add one more reason to be cautious, checkout an updated chart of total credit market debt to GDP as of Q1-08.... yikes!
      See tradesystemguru.com/co...
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 6th 12:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Transportation Sector May Be Overly 'Clobbered'
      Overly clobbered or just correcting to where it should be? First, the Dow Transport Average is a poor proxy for the transportation sector. It consists of just 20 cherry picked transport companies. If you look at a broader snapshot of the sector, the DJT has been providing an overly rosy outlook of what the sector is really doing.

      According to Dow Theory, a trend is confirmed when both the Industrials and Transports move in the same direction. Dow Transports had been holding up artificially well compared to the Industrials and now that inequity is being addressed as those who have been holding these stocks realize that a rally isn't just around the corner as value analysts have been trying to convince us since this correction began...

      Am putting together an article to explain this which I will post on SeekingAlpha called DJ Transportation Average Disconnect ...
      Cheers,
      Matt
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 6th 02:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull
      Cara;
      You and all the other analysts I've heard labeling this an excellent or 'once in a generational time' to buy may be right. But given the trend we are in there is a greater chance you and they are wrong. (Trends reverse when a force greater than what is pushing them down exerts an upward force). Such major trend reversals do not happen often especially considering that the bailout attempts are now having a diminishing effect (see tradesystemguru.com/co... ). Our debt situation ( tradesystemguru.com/co... ) doesn't help....
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 6th 01:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Update: Crude Oil, Priced in Gold
      State capitalism is socialism you moron. And it is exactly the path the US is on unfortunately.
      But follow the Swedish model? Are you smoking something?
      Sweden is a small economy relative to the US and socialism is a failed experiment - one only has to look at Sweden to see this to be the case. The so called Swedish experiment took place in 1992 while the US economy (still the largest single economy in the world) was doing relatively well.
      If Sweden were a state in the US it would rank among the four poorest US states in terms of per capita prosperity. Socialism i.e. nationalizing companies, may seem like a good solution but it has had painful economic repercussions over the long haul.

      Great in theory for those looking for a quick fix but this is a really stupid idea and one only someone writing for the New York Times would consider seriously proposing!
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 6th 01:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      5 Reasons Why the $700B Bailout Could Translate to $250 Oil
      You have only shown one side of the argument. The other side is that the string of bailouts pushes US deficits higher triggering a decline in foreign demand for US Treasuries (due to perception of increased risk in holding US dollar-denominated assets) and the offsetting requirement to push interest rates higher to sell enough Treasuries to fulfill monetary demands. This could push up interest rates significantly which would help bolster the US dollar but more importantly, has the potential to cause a deflationary spiral which could push oil well below $70/bbl as the recession compresses demand...
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 29th 01:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fooling Around a Financial Black Hole
      For those of you who are serious about trading or investing and without an axe to grind, please see this report by the Dallas Fed that provides a very interesting perspective on Japan over the last two decades www.dallasfed.org/rese...

      Now ask yourself the question, is this what I want for US markets in the future?

      If nothing else, Elaine makes it clear why Japan is a good example of what not to do. Their markets are heavily manipulated, the Japanese government maintains an iron-fisted control over their markets, tariffs are extremely high, banks are inefficient and their markets are burdened with complicated and counterproductive regulation.

      In other words, a clear example of how not to run a market.

      Contrary to the obtuse comment above that "the value of the yen doesn't matter so long as it is weak, ditto the Nikkei." The value of the yen and Nikkei are ALL that matter for those invested and based on the performance of the Nikkei over the last two decades, it has been the worst place on the planet to have your money whether you are Japanese or not. Japanese getting ready for retirement have my sympathies.

      But how the Japanese choose to ruin their markets is their business. My point is that it is not what we should be trying to emulate for North American markets. The last thing we or anyone else needs is a 20 plus year bear market.
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 28th 23:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fooling Around a Financial Black Hole
      Elaine;
      You are trying to turn this into your own personal soap box. I'm not sure what your agenda is but it certainly isn't about investing or trading. Take it elsewhere.

      This forum is devoted to serious investors, not wannabe economists with some other agenda that quite frankly has little to do with the topic of my article.

      Japan has been engaged in a 20 year bear market by definition, and one which is you obviously have little understanding. After seeing value decimated over the last twenty years in Japanese stocks since 1990, the Japanese investor has my deepest sympathies and if we pursue bailout economics in the US, we will see the same pathetic long-term performance.

      You have clearly demonstrated that you have little understanding of how markets work and what a bear market is.
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 28th 17:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fooling Around a Financial Black Hole
      Elaine;
      Just take a look at the Nikkei225. On Friday it closed a hair about 12,000, 70% below where is it was trading in 1990. That is a moribund performance not matter what you choose to call it. You are incredibly naive if you rely on "official statistics" from any central bank or government including the BoJ which by the way, has shameless manipulated the yen to keep in artificially low. And as you said it yourself, Japanese workers have suffered "hideously" because real growth has been abysmal even in the face of near zero overnight lending rates for the last 15 or more years. It is also why the carry trade has been so successful as traders effectively shorted the yen to go long currencies like the Icelandic krona or New Zealand dollar.

      I'm a trader and its not the recession I follow because by the time a recession is "officially" confirmed, my portfolio is in tatters, its the bear market. My point is that the myriad of bailouts and misguided market impediments (like the short ban) has the potential leave us in a position with a multi-decade bear market like Japans' with moribund economic real performance like Japan. Please spare me the economic lecture. Anyone who thinks that real economic performance in Japan has been impressive over the last two decades is delusional.
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 28th 05:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Excess Looks Good, but Not That Good


      Builders continue to build more homes every month than are being sold which means they are only compounding their own problems!

      See Chart 3 at tradesystemguru.com/co...
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 28th 05:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Be Fooled - Short Selling Restrictions Do Work
      C.S.Jefferson has just proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he has no clue how markets work.
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 20th 21:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Preserving U.S. Economy Over Free Markets (Short Sellers)
      And the interventionist measures you say the US must take will make it progressively less attractive to foreign and domestic investment. Plus one pivotal reality - in the final analysis these measures won't work.

      In nearly every case in which emerging markets attempted to impeded the free market, it cost them and cost them plenty in lack of interest and shunning of those markets by foreign investors. US politicians and regulators who wish to have their cake and eat it too are deluding themselves.

      History tells us such interventions rarely work and the ultimate price is far higher than if they had let the markets work out the excesses in their own time.

      By banning one part of the market, short selling, it will create greater market inefficiencies over time. However, the very politicians that are pushing for such changes have very little interest in fixing markets and are solely concerned with getting re-elected.

      So far the bailouts and drastic measures have failed to work. Chances are this will backfire as well.
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 20th 16:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Mother of All Short Squeezes
      Jimbo
      You are right. Naked shorting without covering the short within the max 13 days allowable under SEC rules is theft plain and simple. Another way of looking at it is that it's counterfeiting. Selling shares you don't have.

      If you haven't yet seen the excellent documentary called Phantom Shares that ran in March 2007, I highly recommend it. A more detailed naked shorting explanation and link to the video and a number of other naked short articles can be found at tradesystemguru.com/co...
      View article »
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