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Matt Blackman
160 Comments
The Case for a Bounce
Curious about your comments about that the insurers who bought the CDSs will now have the $270 billion to pay their Lehman claims. Where do you think this money will come from? The US government has already committed to more than $2 trillion, where is another $270 billion coming from?
California: Canary in the Economic Coal Mine
I have found that new sales generally lead existing homes and we certainly aren't seeing that yet.
Bailout Backfire and the Ticking Debt Time Bomb
Inflation Could Cure Our Economic Ills
Canadian Oil Sands Looks Attractive Despite Near Term Risk
Do you have any information on the price threshold at which oil sands projects become non-profitable? I heard one analyst say that threshold is around $70/bbl on average...
Transportation Sector May Be Overly 'Clobbered'
seekingalpha.com/artic...?
For the Global Credit Boom, the End Is Near
See tradesystemguru.com/co...
Transportation Sector May Be Overly 'Clobbered'
According to Dow Theory, a trend is confirmed when both the Industrials and Transports move in the same direction. Dow Transports had been holding up artificially well compared to the Industrials and now that inequity is being addressed as those who have been holding these stocks realize that a rally isn't just around the corner as value analysts have been trying to convince us since this correction began...
Am putting together an article to explain this which I will post on SeekingAlpha called DJ Transportation Average Disconnect ...
Cheers,
Matt
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull
You and all the other analysts I've heard labeling this an excellent or 'once in a generational time' to buy may be right. But given the trend we are in there is a greater chance you and they are wrong. (Trends reverse when a force greater than what is pushing them down exerts an upward force). Such major trend reversals do not happen often especially considering that the bailout attempts are now having a diminishing effect (see tradesystemguru.com/co... ). Our debt situation ( tradesystemguru.com/co... ) doesn't help....
Update: Crude Oil, Priced in Gold
But follow the Swedish model? Are you smoking something?
Sweden is a small economy relative to the US and socialism is a failed experiment - one only has to look at Sweden to see this to be the case. The so called Swedish experiment took place in 1992 while the US economy (still the largest single economy in the world) was doing relatively well.
If Sweden were a state in the US it would rank among the four poorest US states in terms of per capita prosperity. Socialism i.e. nationalizing companies, may seem like a good solution but it has had painful economic repercussions over the long haul.
Great in theory for those looking for a quick fix but this is a really stupid idea and one only someone writing for the New York Times would consider seriously proposing!
5 Reasons Why the $700B Bailout Could Translate to $250 Oil
Fooling Around a Financial Black Hole
Now ask yourself the question, is this what I want for US markets in the future?
If nothing else, Elaine makes it clear why Japan is a good example of what not to do. Their markets are heavily manipulated, the Japanese government maintains an iron-fisted control over their markets, tariffs are extremely high, banks are inefficient and their markets are burdened with complicated and counterproductive regulation.
In other words, a clear example of how not to run a market.
Contrary to the obtuse comment above that "the value of the yen doesn't matter so long as it is weak, ditto the Nikkei." The value of the yen and Nikkei are ALL that matter for those invested and based on the performance of the Nikkei over the last two decades, it has been the worst place on the planet to have your money whether you are Japanese or not. Japanese getting ready for retirement have my sympathies.
But how the Japanese choose to ruin their markets is their business. My point is that it is not what we should be trying to emulate for North American markets. The last thing we or anyone else needs is a 20 plus year bear market.
Fooling Around a Financial Black Hole
You are trying to turn this into your own personal soap box. I'm not sure what your agenda is but it certainly isn't about investing or trading. Take it elsewhere.
This forum is devoted to serious investors, not wannabe economists with some other agenda that quite frankly has little to do with the topic of my article.
Japan has been engaged in a 20 year bear market by definition, and one which is you obviously have little understanding. After seeing value decimated over the last twenty years in Japanese stocks since 1990, the Japanese investor has my deepest sympathies and if we pursue bailout economics in the US, we will see the same pathetic long-term performance.
You have clearly demonstrated that you have little understanding of how markets work and what a bear market is.
Fooling Around a Financial Black Hole
Just take a look at the Nikkei225. On Friday it closed a hair about 12,000, 70% below where is it was trading in 1990. That is a moribund performance not matter what you choose to call it. You are incredibly naive if you rely on "official statistics" from any central bank or government including the BoJ which by the way, has shameless manipulated the yen to keep in artificially low. And as you said it yourself, Japanese workers have suffered "hideously" because real growth has been abysmal even in the face of near zero overnight lending rates for the last 15 or more years. It is also why the carry trade has been so successful as traders effectively shorted the yen to go long currencies like the Icelandic krona or New Zealand dollar.
I'm a trader and its not the recession I follow because by the time a recession is "officially" confirmed, my portfolio is in tatters, its the bear market. My point is that the myriad of bailouts and misguided market impediments (like the short ban) has the potential leave us in a position with a multi-decade bear market like Japans' with moribund economic real performance like Japan. Please spare me the economic lecture. Anyone who thinks that real economic performance in Japan has been impressive over the last two decades is delusional.
Housing Excess Looks Good, but Not That Good
Builders continue to build more homes every month than are being sold which means they are only compounding their own problems!
See Chart 3 at tradesystemguru.com/co...