Mark Anthony

http://stockology.blogspot.com
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292 Comments

    • Tue Nov 18th 07:58 AM | Rating: 0 -2
      Commented on:
      Peak Oil's Bell Is Ringing
      The solution to Peak Oil is low temperature nuclear fution:
      seekingalpha.com/artic...
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 12th 22:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How to Save the U.S. Economy
      The US government must save the US auto industry as an industry, NOT to save the butts of GM share holders and the the union. The priority is to save the manufacturing basis and jobs, not bail out share holder.

      GM must be allowed to go bankrupt and all its liabilities eliminated. Then under new share holdership the government can help with the re-organization and inject money and all that. But tax payer money must NOT be used to bail out share holders.

      The global auto demand, as well as demand of PGM metals, is a separate issue from the fate of GM. US gasoline consumption in the first 8 months of this year only dropped 2.5% from same time last year. That's a very insignificant percentage drop.

      View article »
    • Wed Nov 12th 21:46 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Reality Hits Oil Market, Dollar Could Benefit
      That's a piece of complete nonsense. You talk about supply and demand, but have you cited one single number either on the supply side or on the demand side? Do you know about Peak Oil?

      For 99% of analysts, when they talk about supply and demand, they always talk about demand side and never talk about supply side. And when they talk about weakening demand, all there is is just guess and speculation, no concrete number.

      Here is one piece of numbers for you on the demand side, in the USA:
      tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav...

      Compare the gasoline consumed in the first 8 months this year with that of last year, the number is 2.205136B barrels versus 2.261672B barrels, a mere 2.5% drop. Of course if you look at emerging economies, the number must be a significant increase. But even in the USA, the drop is only 2.5%, a very insignificant percentage.

      On the supply side, do NOT under-estimate the destructive effect of rapidly plummeting oil prices on the producers. Even during good times in the early half of the year when oil price was twice current level, XOM's net profit is only 1/7 of its sales revenue. Now the revenue is probably halved as price is halved, while the cost remains the same, oil producer may not even be profitable any more. This removes a great amount of incentive to develope new oil sources.

      Peak Oil is real. Mexico's Cantarell, second largest oil field in the world, is declining at an annual rate of 25% or higher. Mexico is now still the second largest oil supplier to the USA. But by as early as 2011 or 2012, Mexico will cease to be an oil exporter and will have to import oil for its domestic use!!! All of the top ten of the world's largest oil fields are declining rapidly. This decline can not be replaced if there is no high oil price to stimulate strong interest to look for dwindling remaining oil reserves in the next few years.

      Read more why supply destruction in commodities is taking place:
      seekingalpha.com/autho...

      The commodity bull shall return with even more fierce forces soon, as severe damage to supply has already been done.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 12th 10:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Norilsk Really Selling Its SWC Stake?
      ic_williams:

      If there is a genius who could have predicted that PGM metal prices would fall, back at the end of February, despite of ongoing electricity crisis in South Africa and production disruption, and that US dollar would rally despite of the Fed printing like there is no tomorrow, then I will follow your genius. But no such genius exists. No one can predict short term moves.

      If you believe the US dollar will continue to move up and precious metals will continue to drop, despite of most of them except for gold are already below marginal production cost, then I urge you to follow your own conviction and sell all your precious metals and stocks, and hoard US dollar cash.

      I continue to exam all the fundamentals of PGM metals, and continue to believe they are extremely bullish, so I continue to hold on. For those who could not hear the pain, please sell and go away, just don't come back to get hurt a second time. I suffer heavy loss myself but I hold on as I don't see a good reason why should I sell.

      Automakers facing a liquidity squeeze must have sold off their precious metal stockpile to raise cash. This put them in a very vulnerable position as they are now completely at risk of any supply discruption. They have to panic buy at some point. It was rather foolish that they sold the metals at far below production cost, and later on need to pay much higher prices to buy them back.

      View article »
    • Wed Nov 12th 02:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How to Save the U.S. Economy
      Demo Up:
      There is no error in my part. One barrel of oil is about 40 gallons. It can be refined to produce a lot of things besides gasoline and diesel. Follow the link I quoted in the article. One barrel produces about 28.9 gallon of vehicle fuels, among other things. Divide it by 40 that's roughly the 71% you discovered through google.

      DaveW:
      I do not see anything thing wrong with SWC's Q3 result. The roughly break even result is much better than I thought. There has been some deliberate manipulation of the share price on Tuesday. There is a Bloomberg news article which obviously distort things or mislead readers.
      www.bloomberg.com/apps...
      For example, the article says "quarterly net loss", without a number and without indicating that it's pretty close to break even.
      For example, it portrait standard forward looking statements, common in all corporation quarterly filings, and made them sound as realistic outlooks. SWC never had a problem collecting payments so far.
      The worse of all, right after mentioning that SWC doesn't have a credit line and doesn't believe it can get one with reasonable terms, the author immediately follows with a comment "``It's MURDER for anyone who needs cash,'" Made it sound like SWC is so desperate for cash liquidity that it will soon be killed. The reality is SWC has more than enough liquidity and does NOT need to take up a credit line. SWC has tons of working capital tied up in the recycling business. It can easily slow down the recycling a bit to free up a lot of cash it it needs to.
      The plummet of SWC tuesday is the worst stock manipulation I have ever seen. I am going to put some fresh cash in and buy more tomorrow.
      View article »
    • Sat Nov 8th 12:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bond Expert: Treasury Update
      I mentioned this naked shorting of up to $2.29 TRILLION of US T-Bonds a week ago. Must read about this shocking story:
      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      Obviously it's so disturbing that the Treasury will have to investigate what's going on in the market. Read also Jim Sinclair's comments.
      View article »
    • Sat Nov 8th 11:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Safe Haven Investments: Imminent Danger and Opportunities
      The naked shorting of up to $2.29 TRILLION U.S. T-Bonds are so disturbing that the US government started an investigation about it. Here is Jim Sinclair's comment about it:

      216.157.72.247/index.p.../

      Quote Jim: "It is ok to naked short anything against anyone until it costs the Treasury money. This is the financial equivalent of “Let Them eat Cake.” Somebody is going to the guillotine for these “Fails to Deliver.""

      The original Bloomberg news report:
      U.S. Treasury Opens Probe Seeking Improper Trading (Update1)
      By Rebecca Christie and Vincent Del Giudice
      www.bloomberg.com/apps...
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 6th 02:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Safe Haven Investments: Imminent Danger and Opportunities
      Anglo Platinum's Polokwane Smelter, one of the two smelter that teh company owns, and the world's largest PGM metals smelter, was shut down by an accident:

      platinum.matthey.com/m...

      The company said it will take six weeks to repair. Don't count on it. There was another shut down of the smelter in September 2005. Their initial accessment was a 3 weeks down time. Ended up shut down for more than three months.
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 6th 02:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Next Crisis Is on the Horizon
      I completely agree. Except that you have not touched on the topic of how soon can we expect a transition from deflation to hyper-inflation. My opinion is the transition will be sudden and abrupt, and will happen within 2 to 3 weeks time. Read my reasonings:

      seekingalpha.com/artic...
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 31st 16:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Safe Haven Investments: Imminent Danger and Opportunities
      Kire:

      What pink sheet stock did I mention? The only thing with a .pk I mentioned is NILSY.PK, Norilsk Nickel. They are not a small penny stock. Norilsk Nickel is gigantic. I do not recommend penny stock.

      PaulTaut:

      No one can get market timing correct so why even bother to attempt to time the market. Most savvy investors have totally given up trying to time the market moves and they concentrate on valuation only. Jim Rogers has not sold a single share of his Chinese shares. If he thought he could time the market he would have sold and then try to buy back cheaper. Jim Rogers is a billionaire because he recognize what he can not do and should not do, and concentrate on what he can do and should do. That is concentrating on valuation and be patient, let the market play its timing game.

      When most people are by-standers, it's time to jump both feet in to buy.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 30th 14:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China's Greatest Trade Ever
      Read this, you MUST be SHOCKED:
      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      Speculation: Is China behind the $2.29T naked shorting of US T-Bonds? It's T for Trillions!!!
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 30th 11:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Safe Haven Investments: Imminent Danger and Opportunities
      Fred:
      Thanks for the clarification. I meant to use Noah's Ark for an analogy, without elaborate the details.
      I read "...and God resolved that he would never again curse the ground because of man, nor destroy all life on it in this manner. Man in turn was instructed never to eat any animal which had not been drained of its blood"
      Wonder why all the red meat sold in grocery stores do not have their blood properly drained and they hence taste foul, betraying the Christian tradition. In China, a country without much Christian tradition, people care a big deal that blood of any slaughtered animal must be completely drained or they would not buy. It's also the tradition of many cultures. Just an interesting fact.
      I shall read the Noah's Ark story again.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 30th 10:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold in a Credit Crisis
      You should also mention SWC as a major palladium player, if you mentioned PAL. SWC is a better buy than PAL at current price level:

      seekingalpha.com/artic...
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 29th 22:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Safe Haven Investments: Imminent Danger and Opportunities
      Paulo:
      Do I not know PAL has temporarily shut down production? I personally contacted PAL repeatedly in the past two months to urge them to shut down production and turn around to buy cheap palladium from spot market. They decision to shut down pleased me more than anything else. Read my past articles.

      SeeTheLight:
      Is it going to be a V-shaped or L-shaped recovery? Nickel went from $4 to $5.86, a raise of 46.5% in three trade days. Obviously it's a 'V" for Victory, not a 'L' for loser. Do you want a V or L?

      User287863:
      If Norilsk Nickel shuts down, it does not just shut down nickel production, but it will shut down all metals. All the metals are produced together from the same mineral ore. It is very late in the mining process, in the refining process, that metals finally separate from one another.

      Muddling:

      I encourage you to do more due diligence research. My past articles can be good start as they contains lots of links to relevant information. Mid to long term, palladium is super bullish due to factors both on the tight supply side, and on the emerging demand side. Short term set back does not reflect the supply/demand dynamics, but is merely a result of liquidity squeeze. Industry users forced to sell their precious metal inventory to raise cash for regular operations. They have to buyback.

      Today's news, GM global auto sale down 10% year over year. GM should be one of the worst performing auto makers. So globally maybe overall auto demand is down 5%. Consider auto demand is 50% of PGM metals demand, that slash away just 2.5%, which is not very significant. Tightening environment requirement means more PGM metals will be used in each vehicle. This increased loading MORE THAN compensates the drop of total vehicles sold.

      Ever increasing popularity of hybrid vehicles like Prius also means MORE PGM consumption. That's because frequence shut-down and re-start of the main engine of hybrid vehicles means the vehicle will operate at cold start temperature more often. When temperature is lower, the catalytic converter needs to contain much more PGM metals to be effective enough to meet EPA requirements.

      I am absolutely super bullish on palladium. I do NOT hold on and pump my favorite palladium stocks just because I hold them and I want to get even. There are lots of excellent silver and gold stocks beaten down to very attractive prices. I should and would have jumped ship if I do not believe palladium is the most bullish precious metal of all. The bullish arguments simply can not be disputed.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 17:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Safe Haven Investments: Imminent Danger and Opportunities
      Muddling:
      I looked at your blog. You seems to be a serious stock trader wanting to make money, not a basher. So all I want to tell you is each and every statement you made above is wrong and not logical. Use your brain, think logically, do your research, you might get a better conclusion. Read my past articles to understand the background of the palladium market. It's good to ask hypothetical questions but it's even better if you can draw logical conclusions. Good luck!
      View article »
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