PowerShares India Portfolio ETF (PIN)
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- India Outlook: Slowdown Ahead? [view article]
- Outlook for the Indian Economy [view article]
- Indian Inflation Accelerates Again [view article]
- Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [view article]
- International ETF Update: Brazil, India, Malaysia [view article]
- International ETF Update: China, India [view article]
- India's Central Bank Raises Interest Rates Again - Will It Help? [view article]
- India Battles Rising Inflation, Lower Growth; Ratings Agencies Turn The Screw [view article]
- India's Strong Growth Should Continue [view article]
- ETF Update: Slowdown in Emerging-Market Currencies [view article]
- India: Inflation Up, Industrial Output Down [view article]
- Time to Hop Back Onboard the Asia Express? [view article]
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- India Outlook: Slowdown Ahead?
- ETF Insights: India, Indonesia, Italy
- Indian Inflation Accelerates Again
- International ETF Update: Brazil, India, Malaysia
- Outlook for the Indian Economy
- International ETF Update: China, India
- India's Central Bank Raises Interest Rates Again - Will It Help?
- ETF Update: Slowdown in Emerging-Market Currencies
- India Battles Rising Inflation, Lower Growth; Ratings Agencies Turn The Screw
- India's Strong Growth Should Continue
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India Outlook: Slowdown Ahead? [view article]
The Indian Analyst; normally when things turn nasty in an economy, in order to identify a slowdown ahead of the pack I adjust GDP to provide a picture which better highlights the immediate situation. I do not look at the GDP growth based on 99/00 $'s, because inflation since then has been slow except for now when it has escalated. I use the ministry of finance data on nominal GDP and look at quarter on quarter growth adjusted for inflation now prevaletnt. This gives a better feel for what is going on now. Replylyst
India Outlook: Slowdown Ahead? [view article]
This is an explanation on Shiv's comment. The GDP data normally talked about is real GDP. So inflation is not part of it. As per official data, India has never had a recession in its historyBut sure, official data has to be taken with a pinch of salt. I dont think anybody knows what is the real growth rate in services sector Reply
India Outlook: Slowdown Ahead? [view article]
I agree with Shiv that GDP has already shown significant slow down (net of inflation). Last few years has shown that GDP growth rates is driven primarily by service sector (~72% weighted contribution) while employing less than 8% of the population. In contrast, the agriculture sector has contributed less to GDP growth rates (~10% weight contribution) while close of ~60% population depend on it. Similar gaps can be seen with infrastructure also. This imbalance cannot continue forever. There has to be reversal to mean growth rates. While one can hear in loud speaker of Indian great story, majority of the population is not benefiting from it. The consistent growth rate can be maintained if India addresses all aspects of economy (not just the service sector – primarily driven by exports). If private sector and FII investments go to industrial/service sectors, why can’t govt focus its spending on creating platform/policies for agriculture and infrastructure ?More data on www.galatime.com/2007/.../
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India Outlook: Slowdown Ahead? [view article]
Look at India GDP for the last several quarters. Net of inflation, there has already been a significant slow down. Perhaps worst than what we saw in the prior 10 years; in a sense, real GDP has contracted. I expect this trend to continue for a further six months and believe that it is substantially priced in, with unlikely downside potential to 9500-10000 range.I feel we are in a situation where interest rate cuts can begin to flow through after 6 months (max maybe 3 months); this together with several catalysts (Commonwealth Games, NSG etc.) should reignite growth. Foreign capital flows coming back (or at least not being withdrawn) will be another positive. Only factor to watch out for is politics; a single party in majority is unlikely, but a strong coalition is desirable. Both leading parties are capable of formulating good growth policy, so I have no preference. Only caution is that people should not expect the irrational fwd multiples we had while market traded at 21K. For next year a sensible expectation if growth returns is 16X 2010 fwd earnings - i.e. 17k-18k levels. Reply
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India Outlook: Slowdown Ahead? [view article]
have you factored the bailout India may be asked to do to Bush and co? ReplyIndia Outlook: Slowdown Ahead? [view article]
to understand the indian economy, you really need to analyze gdp on a per capita basis to understand if there is any real gdp growth.Reply
Outlook for the Indian Economy [view article]
Very well written article. But I do feel one aspect of rising inflation has been missed by the author.Considering that vehicle ownership in india is not very large, a lot of inflationary pressure comes from agricultural commodities. With the rising food prices, there has been a significant increase in investment in agriculture as evident from the agri export numbers. It is however hard to accurately incorporate contribution from this into the GDP as a lot of commodities (esp vegetables) are a part of a very disorganized and local market. This contribution however is vital in the long run in distributing income far from the financial centers in the metros. As long as the government is not too punishing on the export-import policies, a growth of even 7% with the added agri contributions should be better for India Reply
Indian Inflation Accelerates Again [view article]
India will always be a country that has POTENTIAL. The have a huge bureacracy that will never let this country reach its true potential. China is kicking their butt ReplyOutlook for the Indian Economy [view article]
One reason why CMIE estimates are optimistic is that the Government is its largest client. In fact, I know that many Government departments give their data to CMIE to publish, and then call the data "CMIE data". CMIE would certainly now want to annoy its biggest client by projecting low growth or high inflation. ReplyIndian Inflation Accelerates Again [view article]
Nice article and good research - I am an Indian and believe in the India growth story but there are some major headwinds in the way to realize the growtn story ---- rising oil and resulting impact on inflation, rising deficit and elections down the road Replytt_student
Indian Inflation Accelerates Again [view article]
Well researched article, I liked it ! Replyocks
Indian Inflation Accelerates Again [view article]
Wage raises like 20+% for millions of government servants on top of the millions of $s loaned to farmers waived by banks are not good for India's future. ReplySingle Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [view article]
They left out the Swiss Helvetica Fund (SWZ, I think) the only single country CEF for Switzerland I know of. ReplyInternational ETF Update: Brazil, India, Malaysia [view article]
retail business in general is doing very well. ReplyOutlook for the Indian Economy [view article]
Really nice article.here are my doubts about india:
1. Politicians as always, and everywhere, dont care about long term benefits to the country or society, hence they are not solving infrastructure problems which is becoming a bottleneck for growth.
2. private investment in infrastructure is very risky (bangalore-mysore freeway is mired in red-tape since 7-8 years) hence i dont see infrastructure improving much.
3. in china thats is never a issue, its get done by the party, and it does appear that the party is interested in promoting china as a super power, its not the case in india (they are busy looting for themselves till they are in power).
i am not an economist hence i am clueless about the problems infrastructure presents to economic growth, please shed some light?
India has gone through a real estate boom, which maybe going bust right now. most of it was done with atleast 10-20% down payment, but if there is any pressure on jobs, we can see defaults go through the sky since most people spend almost 50% of income to service the mortgage.
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