Under The Radar News - Thursday

Bear bottom? "A major bear market bottom seems to be developing, with a test of the January low likely to occur in the weeks ahead," Brown Brothers Harriman technical analyst Andrew Burkly says. "In addition to revisiting or slightly penetrating the prior low, I am also looking for a significant wave of negative investor sentiment as the second bottom occurs, thereby completing the technical parameters usually found at major cyclical lows," after which "heavy accumulation" usually begins.

Ambac just getting started. "Based on our estimate that Ambac will eventually absorb $11B of losses from insured CDOs and MBS related exposures, $1.5B of new capital at first blush does not seem like enough to fix the capital adequacy problem," JPMorgan says. "It is likely that another round of capital may be required this year to avoid downgrade." Securing its AAA rating "is a first step, but winning back customers that will have been using more stable competitors for a long period may prove to be a difficult, if not impossible, task."

'Government-sponsored' ain't good enough. Mortgage-backed debt obligations issued by Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) is plunging relative to Treasurys. Yields on notes paying 5.5% interest jumped by 10 BP to 2.23% above benchmark Treasurys, the most in more than two decades. The spread has widened for a fifth day, and is up 1.51% from the beginning of 2008. FNM and FRE are down 5.6% and 4.6% in early trading.

Ballmer goes ballistic. Sources say Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Steven Ballmer is fuming over Yahoo's move yesterday to pre-empt a proxy fight by pushing off its shareholder meeting. Microsoft may alter its offer to $31/share cash-only, and is reportedly trying to convince 3% stakeholder Softbank to come out in favor of its offer. Ballmer is also miffed that Yahoo apparently talked with AOL (TWX) but still refuses to sit down with MSFT.

So much for iPhone Flash. Apple's (AAPL) Steve Jobs says Adobe's (ADBE) Flash Lite Player is too slow to be useful on the iPhone. There are, however, rumors Jobs' tirade is a form of playing 'hard-to-get' in response to Adobe's pressuring Apple to use its PDF renderer. Sources say iPhone can run Flash Lite with its 'eyes' closed.

Bill Miller bets on Countrywide, Yahoo. Famed Legg Mason (LM) investor Bill Miller -- who outperformed the S&P 500 for 15 years before trailing by 10% in 2006 and 12% in 2007 -- is placing high-stakes bets on takeover targets Countrywide (CFC) and Yahoo! (YHOO). He likes CFC whether or not the BofA (BAC) buyout goes through, and thinks Microsoft (MSFT) needs to boost its offer to snag a much-needed Yahoo.

Citi: How low can it go? Shares of Citigroup (C) are trading below book value, leaving its market cap at 66% that of Bank of America (BAC) and 87% of JPMorgan & Chase (JPM). Then again, does anyone know what Citi's book value is?

Inside Google. Jonathan Moreland of InsiderInsights.com recommends selling Google (GOOG) in the face of continued insider selling, declining share price and concerns that an economic slowdown will hurt Google's advertising revenue. When "momentum finally starts breaking down, see what the insiders do," Moreland says. "And if they continue to sell, that's when you act on the signal... The near-religious fervor behind the stock is likely to wane a bit in the near future, and I thank insiders very much for showing their extreme lack of confidence."

Game console prices may be dropping as soon as March 14.

India IT firms feeling pinch. Two large Wall Street banks (possibly Citigroup (C) and Merrill Lynch (MER)) recently cancelled IT outsourcing contracts, highlighting the extent India's IT industry is exposed to a U.S. slowdown. Average sales growth at firms such as Wipro (WIT) and Infosys Technologies (INFY) is about 21%, down sharply from more than 50% a year ago.

Ethanol makers' bad luck. While oil continues to post all-time record highs, so does corn. Soaring oil prices should boost demand for ethanol, but high corn prices are more than offsetting any benefits from the oil rally. Meanwhile, President Bush complained yesterday that ethanol demand was "beginning to affect the price of food. And so we got to do something about it."

Chevron trots out new refining effort. Chevron (CVX) unveiled a new refining technology that converts ultra-heavy oil into clean-burning fuel. Called Vacuum Resid Slurry Hydrocracking, Chevron says the technology could significantly increase yields of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from heavy and ultra-heavy oils.

Decoupling may become reality. Unless global commodity prices collapse, developing countries will likely weather a U.S. downturn better than ever before. Strong exports to emerging economies like China and growing domestic consumption, along with current-account surpluses, all mean developing economies are far less U.S. dependent than in previous U.S. recessions.

$200 Blu-rays a long way off. "I don't think $200 is going to happen this year. Next year $200 could happen. We'll be at a $300 rate this year. $299 will happen this year." -- Sony CEO Stan Glasgow. He also says Sony is not feeling any impact from a U.S. slowdown, and that the company is "working very hard" on an answer to Apple TV.

What CAN'T you do without? According to a recent survey, American's would be most loathe to give up their cell phone (51%). Next comes internet (45%), TV (43%) and their landline (40%). My how times have changed. 2002's numbers: Landline (63%), TV (47%), internet (38%) and cell phone (38%).

Sprint spinoff? Sources say Sprint Nextel (S) has hired Morgan Stanley (MS) in an effort to spin-off Nextel, with an announcement expected over the next 2-4 weeks.

Internet TV ads do better. NBC (GE) says new research shows online audiences watch more full-length episodes of its programs, and remember the commercials better. NBC says there was higher brand recall for web-specific ad content now than in previous quarters, and that users found ads less intrusive than those on TV. Meanwhile, comScore data shows ABC's (DIS) website serves up the most videos, while CBS (CBS) is doing the best job of keeping viewers online: ABC: 47.3 million videos, 28 million minutes. CBS: 33.8 million videos, 104 million minutes. NBC: 25.3 million videos, 62 million minutes. Fox: (TWX) 1.4 million videos, 2 million minutes.

Comments

[Tom B]

"Sources say Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Steven Ballmer is fuming over Yahoo's move yesterday to pre-empt a proxy fight by pushing off its shareholder meeting."

Maybe monkey-boy threw some chairs around. What does he expect, offering a low-ball hostile offer?

[Tom B]

"Then again, does anyone know what Citi's book value is?"

I don't trust their managemnet. End of story, as an investment.

[H2O]

The Crooks are live and well:

The Pledge Of Americans for Tax Reform - Grover Norquist

Now we don't even need to go into - How this group filed lawsuits
to keep the michigan primary - Fixed !!!!

But lets look at this so-called pledge Americans have to take -
To this group Americans for Tax Reform.

Every Republican running for office - has to take this pledge -
Now when they pledge to this group - There not pledgeing there
allegance to the Constitution of these United States.

So exactly who are these Republicans taking a pledge to???

There's an incredible story brewing in Washington that is too hot
for the networks to touch.

Grover Norquist, whom most conservatives know as Executive Director
of the College Republicans, boardmember of the NRA, and head of
Americans for Tax Reform, has been exposed as helping Muslim groups
and individuals who finance and support Islamic terrorism gain access
to the Bush White House.

"""Norq... has also been exposed as the founder of the Islamic Insitute,
a group believed to be funded by foreign governments, Wahhab Islam
elements in Saudi Arabia, and U.S. Muslim groups recently raided by a
special Treasury Department task force for funding Al Qaeda and Palestinian
terrorists. The Islamic Institute's website lists the following goals.""&quo...

WHAT SAY YOU NOW, GROVER NORQUIST? Posted on 07/31/2004 5:31:06 AM PDT by SJackson

Court documents to be made public today will trace in rich detail an explosive
allegation that Alamoudi made in plea negotiations with prosecutors -- that Libyan
leader Moammar Gaddafi plotted to assassinate Crown Prince Abdullah, de facto ruler
of Saudi Arabia...


His arrest last September shook the U.S. Muslim community and reverberated through
Washington's political elite. As leader of the American Muslim Council, Alamoudi
met on occasion with senior Clinton and Bush administration officials. He also helped
found the Pentagon's Muslim chaplain program and is particularly well known in the
Muslim community of Northern Virginia, where he helped run a number of charities
and political groups.

www.freerepublic.com/f...

[Donger]

"what is Citi book value?" Investors with a long term view will see this as a buying opportunity.

[H2O]

How Crooks use words to cover there butts - and how you can use them too.

~ How to Use the I don't Know ~

I don't know if Hillary was part of Bill's impeachment
- But she was married to Him at the Time !!!!

I don't know if Hillary has Mus ties - But I did see
a picture of her daughter - with a nigerian official !!!!

I don't know if Hillary supported the China - Nafta-cafta
deals - But she has said good things about it !!!!

I don't know if Hillary - had anything to do with the -
Grover-repub push to move michigan and florida primarys up
- But she has been known to have contact with Grover!!!!

I don't know if Hillary - Had anything to do with - The
housing market crashing around every American - But I do
know she was involved in white-water - and the S&L bail
out's before !!!!


Now McCain:

I don't know if McCain goes gay too - But I do know he shares
The repub bathroom in the senate with Sen-Larry-Craig !!!!

[H2O]

From Housing - To high gas prices - wallstreet - washington - seems to be nothing but a bunch of lying crooks.
While Cry-Baby Clinton - Was saying - The media was hard on her
- They sure was out pushing her lie - and now we find out - It
was her that made the call!!!!

So lets see if the news media - will correct there LIE !!!!

Not unlike they too LIED - About the Iraq War - Repeting LIES !!!


OTTAWA (AFP) - US presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton's campaign,
while rapping rival Barack Obama for telling US voters he is anti-NAFTA
and saying otherwise to Canada, tried to reassure Canada too, local
media said Thursday.

A top aide of Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper meanwhile was
identified as the likely source of an alleged leak that provoked a diplomatic
fiasco involving both US Democratic presidential contenders.

Last month, Harper's chief of staff, Ian Brodie, purportedly made impromptu
remarks to journalists about Clinton's US presidential bid, said Canadian
reports.

The offhand comments apparently sought to downplay the potential impact on
Canada of Clinton and Obama's attacks on the North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA) during stops in the US state of Ohio.

news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2...


Canadians deny Obama call


A spokesman for the Canadian Embassy to the United States, Tristan Landry,
flatly denied the CTV report that a senior Obama aide had told the Canadian
ambassador not to take seriously Obama's denunciations of NAFTA.

"None of the presidential campaigns have called either the ambassador or any
of the officials here to raise NAFTA," Landry said.

He said there had been no conversations at all on the subject.

"We didn't make any calls, they didn't call us," Landry said.

"There is no story as far as we’re concerned," he said.

www.politico.com/blogs...

[H2O]

Seem's Like the Clinton's Think The White-House is a Animal Party House - Support Nafta-Cafta - Out-sourcing - and Pardon all the Clinto Family Crooks .......

As You can find out - Hillary is getting big funding from banking-mortgage companys = ask the question - are they seeking pardons and a big bail-out????

Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Chris Dodd, head of
the Senate Banking Committee, have been some of the largest beneficiaries
of the mortgage banking industry, whose dollars have provided a strong
incentive for Congress to sit tight and hope the subprime bubble wouldn't burst.


Denise Rich Gave $450,000 to Clinton Library

The ex-wife of fugitive commodities giant Marc Rich donated $450,000 to the Clinton presidential library before then-President Clinton pardoned the billionaire last month, ABCNEWS has learned.

Democratic sources say the donations were made in three installments, the first in July of 1998, the second in August 1999, and the final one last May. The sources did not know of any further commitment by Denise Rich for future library contributions.

Ms. Rich, a prominent supporter of the Democratic Party, had been at the forefront of a coordinated effort to convince Clinton to pardon her former husband, who had been wanted by a handful of federal law enforcement agencies after being indicted in 1983 on 51 counts of tax fraud, mail fraud, racketeering and illegally trading with Iran during the U.S. trade embargo.

Details of that effort, including word of the donations, were described during a Thursday hearing of the House Committee on Government Reform, which has been examining circumstances surrounding the pardon, one of several granted on Clinton's final day in office.

Ms. Rich, however, declined to provide details about the contribution, citing her Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. The Clinton library so far has also refused to discuss the donations.

abcnews.go.com/Politic...



Consider, for example, Mr. Clinton's decision to commute the sentences of four Hasidic men from New Square, N.Y., who were in prison for defrauding the government by inventing a fictitious religious school and using it to attract millions in government aid. The commutations were granted after Mr. Clinton and his wife, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, met privately in December with supporters of the men, whose politically active sect had overwhelmingly backed Mrs. Clinton in her victorious Senate campaign. Mrs. Clinton denies any responsibility for the president's commutation decision and denies even knowing that commutation would be discussed. But her presence at the meeting surely underscores her interest in accommodating these constituents. The United States attorney in New York, Mary Jo White, vigorously opposed the commutations, which she learned about only at the last minute.

www.mishalov.com/Clint...